EarningsChaser models how stocks will react to upcoming earnings — magnitude, and the specific options trade — using LLM analysis of filings, transcripts, insider flows, options skew, and 8 quarters of reaction history. The signal is the variance risk premium: whether the move lands bigger or smaller than the options-implied move. The measurement audit is complete (2026-09-15): counted per event — one outcome per company per earnings date, not one per prediction row — RICH calls have resolved overpriced 65.8% of the time across n = 266 events (IN-SAMPLE: scored by a model retrained on that same history, so not a forward expectation), and all graded VRP calls 63.0% across 573 events. Forward-validation is still accruing and is the weaker sample. Direction we do not claim to predict: across 3,026 scored events the model committed to up/down on 2,806 (93%) and was right 50.1% of the time — a coin flip.
An illustrative example, not a real prediction — the figures below are made up to show the layout. Each real setup includes the model's directional view, magnitude vs the options-implied move, confidence, the analyst thesis, and a concrete options trade with live strikes and pricing.
AMD enters this print with textbook stretched positioning (+48.6% 30d, +40% abnormal vs SPY) and lopsided bullish sentiment (Stocktwits 93% bullish), while history shows 5 of last 6 beats closed red 1d with the most recent print collapsing -18.7% on a +15.9% EPS beat. Loud insider selling (~$74.8M from CEO Su / CTO Papermaster at $350) plus the 'guidance > headline' dynamic sets up an asymmetric sell-the-news risk that the ±9.4% implied move slightly under-prices.
Four stages. The same chain runs every morning before market open, on every liquid name with earnings in the next seven days.
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One email each morning before market open. Direction, magnitude, edge vs implied, and the specific options play — for every liquid name reporting in the next seven days.
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